RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT · 2026

Simulating Cost and Schedule Risk before Construction

The method gives teams a defensible way to discuss contingency, contracts, and mitigation before uncertainty becomes a claim.

Construction analyticsMonte Carlo case studyConference paper

The question

Budgets and schedules are commonly presented as fixed commitments even when important risks remain unresolved. The study tested whether simulation could provide more credible ranges before and after mitigation.

What we did

Two Massachusetts commercial projects—a senior-living facility and multifamily development—were modeled with 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations using PERT-Beta distributions. Interview-derived risks and mitigation actions were incorporated into pre- and post-mitigation scenarios.

What we found

Both projects exceeded their original budgets and schedules but remained within simulated expectations.
The senior-living project’s final cost of $18.1 million aligned with the post-mitigation forecast.
The multifamily project’s 4.2% cost overrun and 90-day delay also remained within the modeled range.

Why it matters

The method gives teams a defensible way to discuss contingency, contracts, and mitigation before uncertainty becomes a claim. It turns risk registers into quantitative decision support. Read together, the question, method, and findings show how this publication fits within Tafazzoli’s broader program of connecting built-environment evidence with practical decisions. The page intentionally separates documented results from interpretation and directs readers to the complete paper for methodological detail. The study also illustrates a recurring principle across this research portfolio: a useful result must be understood in its original setting before it is transferred to another project, organization, population, or policy context.

Diagram summarizing Simulating Cost and Schedule Risk before Construction — Actual outcomes inside simulated ranges. This original synthesis graphic is based on the study’s documented question, method, or principal contribution; consult the paper for complete figures, labels, units, and uncertainty.
Original website synthesis based on the cited publication.
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READ THE PAPER

Monte Carlo simulation for risk-based cost and schedule estimation in commercial construction

Published · 2026 · Conference paper

Sadeh, H., Blanchard, J., Tafazzoli, M., & Todorov, D. (2026). Monte Carlo simulation for risk-based cost and schedule estimation in commercial construction. Construction Research Congress 2026 (pp. 679–689). American Society of Civil Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784486986.066

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DOI: 10.1061/9780784486986.066

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