RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT · 2025

Forecasting Construction Cash Flow under Risk

The work demonstrates why a single cash-flow curve can be misleading.

Construction analyticsProbabilistic BIM modelJournal article

The question

Deterministic cash-flow forecasts can conceal the financial consequences of interacting project risks. This study asked how 5D BIM and a Bayesian belief network could produce a more realistic range of outcomes.

What we did

The proposed workflow used 5D BIM to automate cash-flow calculations and a Bayesian network to represent risk relationships. Fuzzy sets, DEMATEL, and interpretive structural modeling helped structure the network before it was applied to a project case.

What we found

The risk-free final-month cash flow was estimated at IRR 14.4 billion.
With risk included, the final cash-flow range extended from approximately IRR −142.2 billion to IRR 1.11 billion.
The modeled risks implied the possibility of 11–130% deviation from the deterministic forecast.

Why it matters

The work demonstrates why a single cash-flow curve can be misleading. A probabilistic range gives project teams a stronger basis for liquidity planning, mitigation, and scenario comparison. Read together, the question, method, and findings show how this publication fits within Tafazzoli’s broader program of connecting built-environment evidence with practical decisions. The page intentionally separates documented results from interpretation and directs readers to the complete paper for methodological detail. The study also illustrates a recurring principle across this research portfolio: a useful result must be understood in its original setting before it is transferred to another project, organization, population, or policy context.

Diagram summarizing Forecasting Construction Cash Flow under Risk — Risk widens the cash-flow outcome. This original synthesis graphic is based on the study’s documented question, method, or principal contribution; consult the paper for complete figures, labels, units, and uncertainty.
Original website synthesis based on the cited publication.
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READ THE PAPER

Probabilistic cash flow analysis considering risk impacts by integrating 5D-building information modeling and Bayesian belief network

Published · 2025 · Journal article

Madihi, M. H., Tafazzoli, M., Shirzadi Javid, A. A., & Nasirzadeh, F. (2025). Probabilistic cash flow analysis considering risk impacts by integrating 5D-building information modeling and Bayesian belief network. Buildings, 15(11), 1774. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15111774

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DOI: 10.3390/buildings15111774

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